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Դ:51ߺҽ    :2616    :2016-6-23 9:12:06
ߺҽѼŴƽⶨ֪ʶ

ŴƽⶨҲƹϡ²ɣҪָ״̬£λƵʺ͵λĻƵŴȶģŻƽ⡣״̬Ҫ5Ⱥ㹻󣻢Ⱥи䣻ûͻ䷢û»룻ûȻѡ񡣴ʱƵʺ͸Ƶʴµʽϵұֲ䣺
A=pa=qA+a=p+q=1AA+Aa+aa=p2+2pq+q2=1
ӦŴƽⶨƵʻƵȽϼ㣬Ŵƽⶨɵ÷ΧӦ÷ܻһЩʣһµܽᡣ
һŴƽⶨɵ÷Χ
ŴƽȻ״̬޷ﵽģһ㹻ȺУɽûԵȻѡ񻰣ƵؿŴƽ⡣ȺӬȺȱȽϴȺУһЩ״ŴǿӦŴƽⶨɵġ
⣺ijÿ10000һ׻ߣõһһ׻Сļʡ
ͱӦŴƽ⹫ʽ޷⡣£
֪׻ĻƵaa=q2=0.0001q=0.01p=0.99
AAĻƵp2=0.9801AaĻƵ2pq=0.0198
Я߸Ϊ2pq/( p2+2pq)=2/101
ΪaaĸΪ2/1012/1011/4=1/10201ϡ
⣬һЩŴƽȺھһɽ󼴿ɴﵽŴƽ⣬ʱҲӦŴƽⶨĻƵʡ
磺ijȺAA ռ20%Aaռ40%aaռ40%aa岻ܽн䣬ɽ䣬һи͵ı
״ԲŴƽ⣬Դѡֱ⡣Ҫֽ䷽ʽٽйۺϣAAAaĴ۸ɽϷʽԵñȽϷ ʵҲӦŴƽⶨ,£
AAAaֻƵȷģA=2/3a=1/3
һɽӴɴﵽŴƽ,AA=4/9,Aa=4/9,aa=1/9ϡ
. ŴƽⶨڸλŴеӦ
Ŵƽⶨ2λŴĿеӦҲգԲϸڸλŴУӦŴƽ⹫ʽ
ȿһ⣺˵ABOѪ;3λIAIBiijAѪ450ˣBѪ130ˣAB60ˣOѪ360ˣ򼰻Ƶʡ
ҲӦŴƽⶨɣ3λʱʽ£
IA=pIB=qi=r
IAIA+IBIB+ii+IAIB+ IAi+IBi =p2+q2+r2+2pq+2pr+2qr=1
ⲻѵór2=0.36r=0.6
IBIB+ IBi +ii= q2+2qr +r2=q+r2=0.49q=0.1
p=1-q-r=0.3ƵҲͲˡ
ɸǿƵnλʱ乫ʽǣp+q+r++n2=1չʽ
. ŴƽڰŴеӦ
ŴƽⶨڸλŴеӦáͨѧҲǼ򵥴صҪ۵ڰŴӦŴƽⶨɵĹʽҲȿ⣺
һӬȺÿ2500ֻӬһֻ۹ӬȺаۻƵʡ
ѵڹӬۣ״ۣǰŴλλXȾɫϣƹӬ۹ӬĻƵʲһ£޷ֱӦŴƽ⹫ʽԺܶʦҪô޲ߣҪôֱֻдӬֻӬ½м㣨⵱ȻDzܵģЩʦɸһ⡣
ʵӦŴƽⶨɣҪ
ۻƵXb=qۻƵXB=p
ӬԱӦΪ11ӬУXBYXbY=pqXBY=p/2XbY=q/2
ӬУXBXBXBXbXbXb=p22pqq2XBXB= p2/2XBXb =pq XbXb = q2/2
֪q/2+ q2/2=1/2500q=0.0007993
ܻ˻ɸùʽȷԣDz֤һ¡Ŵƽ˼۷ֳٴֻ͵ƵԶģֻʱһĸֻƵǷ״ͬɼ顣ǵļ裬״ӬXBYXbY=pqӬУXBXBXBXbXbXb=p22pqq2ķʽͼ±

XBXB
p2
XBXb
2pq
XbXb
q2
XBY
p
XBXB XBY

XBXB XBXb
XBY XbY
XBXb XbY
XbY
q
XBXb XBY

XBXb XbXb
XBY XbY
XbXb XbY
ע״XBYռиp/2ԸеƵΪpƣ
ӴXBY=p3/2+p2q/2+p2q/2+pq2/2=p/2
XbY= q3/2+q2p/2+q2p/2+qp2/2=q/2
XBXB= p3/2+ p2q/2= p2/2
XBXb= p2q/2+ q2p/2+ p2q/2+ q2p/2=pq
XbXb= q3/2+ q2p/2= q2/2
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